The wrong place to look
Most investment memos treat foreign-exchange risk as a model input: a rate, a buffer, a sensitivity table. In Nigeria, the binding constraint is often access — who can convert, on what timeline, and at what informal cost — not the spot print alone.
Where operations feel it
Distributors shorten payment windows. Imported inputs arrive later or not at all. Local partners ask for pricing resets that the original model never contemplated. None of this waits for a neat policy announcement.
What to demand in diligence
Ask for a conversion history, not a promise. Map which bank relationships actually clear. Separate treasury optimism from procurement reality. If the thesis requires smooth dollar liquidity for eighteen months, write that assumption in bold.
A practical posture
Build scenarios around delay and partial convertibility. Prefer structures that can idle without collapsing. Treat ‘we will manage FX’ as a claim that needs owners, not a closing remark.